ATP 250 Brisbane International Qualifying Draw Analysis

Yup.  It’s officially that time of year again.  More specifically, it’s time to start breaking down those qualifying draws and seeing which Challenger Tour players can bust into the main draws this week.  Just to make it clear from the outset: as this is a Challenger Tour site, we’ll be covering top-tier ATP events only to the extent that they involve players ranked outside the Top 90.  Note: this number, while a darn good number, is also just a bit arbitrary and is subject to change at the whims of any of the writers here.  But it’s a good general rule of thumb for ATP tourneys, in any case.

ON TO THE DRAW!  You can click and get an official .pdf with lines and whizbangs and suchlike here or you can just look at a typed out version after this here colon:

[1] MANNARINO, Adrian FRA vs BALL, Carsten AUS
POLANSKY, Peter CAN vs [WC] MITCHELL, Benjamin AUS
SERGEYEV, Ivan UKR vs ITO, Tatsuma JPN
CABAL, Juan Sebastian COL vs [5] KOUBEK, Stefan AUT
[2] BERANKIS, Richard LTU vs LISNARD, Jean-Rene MON
KLEIN, Brydan AUS vs CRUGNOLA, Marco ITA
[WC] DUCKWORTH, James AUS vs TURSUNOV, Dmitry RUS
PEYA, Alexander AUT vs [6] LUCZAK, Peter AUS
[3] RUSSELL, Michael USA vs HARRISON, Ryan USA
FARAH, Robert COL vs BACHINGER, Matthias GER
KINDLMANN, Dieter GER vs ZOPP, Jurgen EST
REYNOLDS, Bobby USA vs [7] KOROLEV, Evgeny KAZ
[4] GREUL, Simon GER vs [WC] JONES, Greg AUS
KNITTEL, Bastian GER vs LOJDA, Dusan CZE
EBDEN, Matthew AUS vs CRIVOI, Victor ROU
[WC] GROTH, Samuel AUS vs [8] ZEMLJA, Grega SLO

  

Mmmmmm.  Tennis draws.  My true and delicious love.  Let me savour this one for a moment, eh? *drools Homer Simpson-style while looking it over*

 

Well, the first thing I notice is that the Aussies got shafted, for the most part.  Now, I realize that any time you have eight Australians in a 32-person draw, perfect distribution is just not a possibility.  However, to have a draw in which there’s an entire Oz-free quarter (i.e. the Russell-Korolev 3rd quarter) and another two quarters that have three Down Under dudes, well… this is less than ideal. 

 

 

From left: Matty Ebden, Greg Jones, Carsten Ball, Fitness Dude, Marinko Matosevic, Peter Luczak

 

Especially egregious is the 4th quarter, which crams legitimate Australian hopes Greg Jones, Matt Ebden and the newly-mohawked Sam Groth into the same pack.  Grrrrrr.

 

 

The infamous, the rarely-photographed Grothawk

 

The next thing I look for is: where are Dmitry Tursunov and Ryan Harrison placed, who are clearly the most dangerous floaters in this draw.  As you can see (do follow along with me, won’t you?), it is Harrison who probably got the more fortuitous placement (for him) – away from top seeds Adrian Mannarino and Ricardas Berankis, who – in my opinion – are the only players who can beat him more often than not.  Thus, I can see the 18 year-old American coming good in this section.  Tursunov, however, has a much rougher road.  After a reasonably solid but should-be manageable opponent in the scrappy WC James Duckworth, Tursunov faces the prospect of a rejuvenated Peter Luczak – who gave Marinko Matosevic all he could handle in the final of the recent AO Wildcard playoff – followed by the lights-out Lithuanean Berankis.  And, as we all know, Rycka has rocketed into the Top 100 and won a whole host of Newcomer and Breakthrough awards at the end of last season.  A tough ask for Tursunov to get through, but not entirely beyond the former Top 20 player by any means.

 

OK, so that’s the overall view. Now let’s take out the fine-toothed draw comb and do a more in-depth, line-by-line audit, breaking down the first round matchups. 

Noumea Qualifying Draw Is Out!

The qualifying draw for the $75,000 Internationaux de Nouvelle-Caledonie (ooh la la) in Noumea, New Caledonia has been made, with most players in the 32 draw greeting the new year with a first round bye.  Top-seeded Knoxville Challenger semifinalist Fritz Wolmarans looks to continue the fine form that saw him finish the year 17/5.

The 24 year-old South African awaits the winner of two unranked French wildcards, Mathieu Monot and David Pateau.  Whatever you do, don’t commit those names to your memory in 2011.  Or, if you must commit just one, stick with Monot – as Mathieu’s unranked younger Monot bro Guillaume squares off against Aussie Dane Propoggia in the qualy draw’s only other first round.  This way one name will get you two players.  Don’t sleep on the Monot bros, yo!  Or, alternatively, sleep on them.  It’s up to you, and 2011 is as yet a blank canvas that is unscarred by your misdoings.  Myself?  I’m going back to bed.

Brazil F1 Semifinals Are Set!

If you’re a good headline reader, as I suspect you may be, then you’ll know that the semifinals are now set for the Brazil F1 tournament.  You’ve also rendered the first sentence of my article completely worthless – I hope you’re happy!  You may have also guessed that if the semifinals are set, that means the quarterfinals have been played.  Wow – you’re on a real roll today, aren’t you, champ? 

Yes, the quarterfinals have been played, and – as my twitter sidebar would only be too happy to tell you – Andre Ghem defeated fourth-seeded Caio Zampieri 6-3 6-4, 6th seed Tsung-Hua Yang beat 2 seed Guillermo Alcaide 3-6 6-2 6-1, 3rd-seeded Belarussian Uladzimir Ignatik overcame [5] Ricardo Hocevar 3-6 7-6(4) 6-4, and unseeded Gastao Elias upset seventh seed Thomas Fabbiano 3-6 6-1 6-2.

Thus, this here is today’s semifinal line-up:

As you can see, four different nations are represented in our first semi of the season.  Andre is the only remaining home country Ghem after knocking out two of his other compatriots – Charles Costa and Daniel Silva -  in the first and second rounds in addition to Zampieri in the QF’s.  But, hey, it was either them or him, ya know?  Certainly can’t blame the guy.  Unsurprisingly, this will be the first meeting between the 28 year-old Sole Remaining Brazilian and his 19 year-old Taiwanese opponent (and 2011 Challenger Tennis Player To Watch), Tsung-Hua Yang.

And look, I know I’ve been referring to this far too much of late, but it keeps coming up.  Yes, I’m talking about the “Young Guns” spreadsheet from stevegtennis.com.  But it’s interesting that the two players meeting in today’s other semifinal (Ignatik and Elias, in case I’ve lost you) both shared top-tier honors in the 2009 preview.  Rather than making you click on it again and launching all sorts of scary-seeming dialog boxes, I’ll just cut and paste the pertinent info here: 

“Young Guns” 2009
Tier I			2009
Player	Nat	Year	W-L	2008 End	Jan 5	Feb 2	Mar 2	Apr 6	May 4	Jun 8	Jul 6	Aug 3	Sep 14	Oct 5	Nov 2	Dec 7	2009 End
Berankis, Ricardas	LTU	1990	58-27	455	454	458	462	465	490	466	512	539	455	423	417	324	319
Elias, Gastao	POR	1990	16-17	578	575	675	667	648	627	612	583	908	854	824	810	774	769
Eysseric, Jonathan	FRA	1990	32-29	361	360	358	373	371	369	414	410	520	373	532	506	490	490
Gojowczyk, Peter	GER	1989	40-26	346	344	385	430	435	426	409	384	399	411	565	481	392	386
Ignatik, Vladimir	BLR	1990	65-25	433	433	475	474	473	461	521	566	523	370	323	279	192	192
Jones, Greg	AUS	1989	47-30	434	434	439	404	404	401	367	348	306	265	279	269	252	247
Klizan, Martin	SVK	1989	50-24	606	604	603	740	613	594	483	442	328	253	244	236	234	234
McClune, Michael	USA	1989	43-25	450	451	480	483	456	444	504	433	391	337	334	341	329	328

I, of course, can go on and on about the different paths and fates of the above-listed players.  But for now, suffice it to say that Ricardas Berankis is now down at the Brisbane International ATP 250 and is now known as “Richard”, and Gastao and Uladzimir – who apparently was once known as “Vladimir”? – are slugging it out in Sao Paulo.  So much can change in a year, eh?   

Or even three years, for that matter.  Which is when these two last met, in a rather exotic locale:  Iggy defeated Elias 6-3 1-6 10-3 in their only previous meeting, at none other than the 2007 Wimbledon Boys Quarterfinals.

Bonded by spreadsheets!  Steeped in lawn-tennissed traditions!  It will be interesting to see what the Futures hold for them today.

Brazil F1 Quarterfinals Preview

While most of the rest of the tennis world trembles in giddy anticipation of the new season, Brazil says, “Pshaw, beyotches – we’re already quarterfinals deep into this seasnatch.” (Warning: may be a paraphrase; my Portuguese is a bit rusty.)

That’s right – here we are on New Year’s Eve Day Eve Day and the Bradesco Prime Cup is already serving up your first QF’s of the new season.  Here is today’s Order of Play:

For me, there are three marquee matches today, and none of them is Andre Ghem vs. Caio Zampieri.  But it’s a BRA vs. BRA situation – and you know how that goes in the ol’ Sao Paulo. Right, bra?  Regardless of my ignorant opinion, the two players have played three previous matches - all of them in 2005, mind you, when Ghem was 23 and Caio was 18.  For what it’s worth, Ghem leads their head-to-head 2 to 1.  Will the fourth seed be able to even up their H2H when they renew their five-years-dusty rivalry?  Probably, I’d say.

You might be surpised to learn that third-seeded, 20 year-old Belarussian Uladzimir Ignatik has met fifth seeded, 25 year-old Brazilian Ricardo Hocevar one time before.  But would your surprise diminish once you learned that Iggy trains in Brazil?  It should.  In any case, Ignatik won that previous meeting of theirs 6-3 6-3, in the second round of the Salvador Challenger in August. The once-touted (by me, anyway) Ulad has gone from a sparkling 65/25 2009 season to an abysmal output of 30/33 “last year” (hohoho).  I’ll be interested to see how he goes in the new season.  And today.  Which, in Brazil, is the same thing.

Uladzimir Ignatik, in presumably happier times

As he been reported earlier, I am pretty darned pleased to see Gastao Elias getting good results here in the new year (shhhhh).  Gastao has been training in Brazil with new coach Rodrigo Nascimento, and seems to be reaping early rewards from this arrangement.  The  just-turned-20-year-old Portugeezer upset top-seeded Rogerio Dutra Da Silva yesterday and looks to continue his run today against seventh seeded Italiano Thomas Fabbiano.  Though the two have never met in singles, they did team up together in juniors once, making R16 in Rohampton dubs in ’06.

The final quarterfinal of the day features 6th seeded Challenger Tennis Player To Watch Tsung-Hua Yang of Taiwan against second seeded Player To Ignore Guillermo Alcaide of Spain. (Just kidding.  About the ignoring, not the match.)  The two have never played with or against one another, in juniors or the pros.  There’s a first time for everything, they say.  Today will be the first time for them.  (Playing tennis against one another in the pros, that is.)

Challenger Tennis Players To Watch – Part Ten(nis)

As we get this late into the Challenger Tennis 12 Days of Christmas profile season (I have actual tournaments I need to start profiling soon, people), one thing is becoming clear: the order in which I hit up the remaining players on my list is becoming increasingly determined by those for whom I can find videos. Therefore, goodbye to today’s planned [redacted] and [redacted] profiles (hint: a Venezuelan and a Pole), hello Pablo Carreno-Busta!