This qualifying draw breakdown comes with one qualifier: to help expedite this analysis, I will be assuming that all Indians save for Sanam Singh, Vishnu Vardhan and Karan Rastogi cannot quite compete at this level and will thus not be advancing to QR2. Oh, and let’s pretend the same is true for all German wildcards as well. Please note: I did not say this would be a particularly fair or accurate assumption, but it will certainly make this draw analysis a hell of a lot easier.

And now, with almost half of all potential qualifiers eliminated from consideration by my reckless and sweeping assertion, let’s see which four gents might actually have a chance to advance into the main draw, shall we?  Oh wait, am I missing something here?  Oh yes – the drawIs as follows:

SINGH, Karunuday IND vs [WC] GREMELMAYR, Andreas GER
GOFFIN, David BEL vs WAGH, Akash IND
PRASHANTH, N Vijay Sundar IND vs [7] MINAR, Ivo CZE

[2] ROGER-VASSELIN, Edouard FRA vs KHAN, Shahbaaz IND
SKUGOR, Franco CRO vs SINGH, Sanam IND
SETKIC, Aldin BIH vs [5] RAONIC, Milos CAN

[3] NILAND, Conor IRL vs VARDHAN, Vishnu IND
PAVIC, Ante CRO vs QURESHI, Aisam-Ul-Haq PAK
RASTOGI, Karan IND vs RAM, Rajeev USA
RAJA, Purav IND vs [6] KUDRYAVTSEV, Alexandre RUS

[4] KRAVCHUK, Konstantin RUS vs SHARAN, Divij IND

First Quarter: So, based on my simple yet effective formula, it’s looking like top-seed Go Soeda will face the winner between David Goffin and [7] Ivo Minar for a main draw spot here. The case for Minar being that winner: he’s ranked higher (#167). The case for Goffin being that winner: he’s one of Challenger Tennis’ 2011 Players To Watch. Advantage: Goffin. For Go’s part, he hasn’t told it on the mountain (i.e. played) against either Goffin or the non-doctor Ivo. Who advances: much as I’d like to see one of CT’s chosen folk thrive early in the year, I suspect it will be the top-seeded Soeda getting through his section. But I wouldn’t mind being wrong at all, at all.

David Goffin

Second Quarter: I’m gonna call my first reckless upset of the season here, and tout Sanam Singh as the guy who emerges from the top half of this quarter. The UVA vet is no slouch at the professional level, though he’s played most of his ball in college thus far. Plus, Skugor had a less-than-convincing end of 2010 (losing his final five matches) and Roger-Vasselin ain’t exactly a hero on hard courts. So I say Singh pleases the locals and slides past Vasselin into the final qualifying round, where he’ll meet… Milos Raonic, of course. The Canadian with the cannonball serve has had time to rest his shoulder and he’s got very high aspirations for this year. I can’t see Aldin Setkic or Evgeny Kirillov really troubling him. Nor Singh, for that matter. Who advances: Raonic.

The Raonic Man – with Carsten Ball

Third Quarter: Well, even though Vishnu Vardan is someone I can’t offhandedly eliminate before my draw analysis gets underway, I can eliminate him now at the hands of Conor Niland. The top-ranked Irishman finished last year too well to be wholly bothered by the third-ranked Indian. Though he may be partially bothered by him. There’s definitely room for some partial botheration. I like Conor to come through over Ante Pavic or Aisam Qureshi as well.

I think Karan Rastogi might go a bit further toward making an impact on Rajeev Ram‘s game deeper into the third quarter, but I expect Ram to come good, even though he didn’t give the Entouraj much to cheer about last year (if anything). And that leads us to an interesting QR2, because Alexander Kudryavtsev – despite impressing in his run to the semis of the Bratislava Challenger semis late last year – has an 0-2 head-to-head against Raj, with both losses coming on hard courts and one coming last year in Chennai. Things look as favorable as they could for the American to find his way into the FQR against Niland. But that’s as far as I expect him to go, assuming he gets that far. It’s Niland who advances out of this section, I think.

Fourth Quarter: I think the one player with the most to be pleased with in all of the Chennai qualifying draw is 4th seed Konstantin Kravchuk. Besides the other seed in his section, Yuichi Sugita, the highest ranked player is outside the Top 500, and Kravchuk won his only previous meeting with Sugita. So look for the 25 year-old Russian to join Soeda, Raonic and Niland in kickstarting their 2011 campaigns with an ATP main draw appearance.