Today’s post finds me musing about teens in the Top 200. As you tennis geniuses (genii?) probably already know, the average age of the Top 100 keeps on rising and rising (it currently sits at 27ish). Today, men over 30 are reaping tremendous results on the ATP World Tour, and gone are the days of the Beckers (Boris, not Benji), the Kricksteins, and the Ariases (Arii?) bashing their way into the Top 20 whilst still comfortably in their teens.
As of this writing, there is only one teen in the Top 200 — the 18-year-old Australian wunderkind Nick Kyrgios at #188. Dominic Thiem almost joined him for a spell, but turned 20 just six days before hitting the T200*. 19-year-old Lucas Pouille of France is poised right on the cusp of Top 200dom at #202. It seems reasonable to expect the Frenchman will join Kyrgios soon, and probably well before he turns 20 on the 23rd of February, 2014.
Which leads me to wonder: which teen(s) do you think have what it takes to make it and join Nick and (possibly) Lucas before he turns 20? Will it be:
Filip It And Reverse It
Filip Peliwo – the Boys’ US Open and Wimbledon champion and junior #1 (on 7-Sept 2012) has been adjusting fairly well to life on the pro circuit, with a 29/19 record, a challenger semifinal (Lexington) and a Futures final to his name this year. At ATP #283, he has a ways to go to make the Top 200, and just over four months to do it. On the plus side, he only has 7 ATP points coming off between now and then. The gregarious Canadian will turn 20 on the 30th of January, 2014. Odds of making it: 14%
Kimmer, Kimmer, Chicken Dinner
Kimmer Coppejans – the Belgian 19-year-old was the Junior #1 just a couple of months before Peliwo grabbed the top spot, and beat the Canadian to claim the 2012 Roland Garros Boys title. Kimmer’s also having a better year than Filip, at 41/18 with a Challenger SF (Meknes) and 5 Futures titles on his 2013 CV. He’s now ranked just 10 rungs below Peliwo at #293, but he has almost 10 days more to get into Top 200ville; his 20th birthday falls on the 7th of February, 2014. And he has precisely 0 (zero) ATP points coming off his ranking before then. Just last month he said his end-of-year goal was to make the Top 300. Methinks he needs a new goal. Odds of making it: 27%
Oppa Gangnam Kyle
Kyle Edmund – 2012 US Open Boys’ Doubles champ (with Portugal’s Frederico Silva) and 2-time Grand Slam Boys’ Singles semifinalist, Edmund is perhaps the most precocious of the young guns, taking titles at USA F11, Italy F20, and just this morning pushing Slovenian Top 100 player Aljaz Bedene (ATP #83) to a 3rd set tiebreak. Kyle currently resides at #315 on Ye Olde Rankings Liste, and the ’95-born Brit has over a year to gain those 115 spots into the Top 200, as he won’t turn 20 until the 8th of January, 2015. Odds: 68%
Thiago Away!
Thiago Monteiro – This former #2 in the junior ranks has been making ever-greater ripples in the pro world of late. qualifying and making it to the semifinals of two Challenger events this summer (Scheveningen and Oberstaufen) and taking home two Futures titles this past spring. Overall, he’s 35/17 on the year (after a slow 2/6 start) and is just 8 spots back of Edmund in the rankings at #323. The Brazilian lefty has about 8 months (more specifically, until the 31st of May, 2014) to make the vaunted 200. Odds: 23%.
And now, a note of caution: Even if any/all of these players make the Top 200, they’re still many grinding miles away from making it in the tennis world, of course. We’ve seen a number of “teen phenoms” sputter and stall quickly after rocketing to attention (most notably one Mr. Bernard Tomic). These are arbitrary benchmarks and somewhat meaningless milestones. But it’s still a lot of fun the try and read the tennistical tea leaves.
So which teen do you think has it in him to bust into the Top 200 whilst still a teen? Any of the above? Or one of these guys below:
| Rank | Player | Nationality | Birthdate |
| 354 | Robin Kern | GER | 10/3/1993 |
| 381 | Karim Hossam | EGY | 4/8/1994 |
| 385 | Christian Harrison | USA | 5/29/1994 |
| 389 | Pedja Krstin | SRB | 9/3/1994 |
| 391 | Gianluigi Quinzi | ITA | 2/1/1996 |
| 398 | Christian Garin | CHI | 5/30/1996 |
| 432 | Laurent Lokoli | FRA | 10/18/1994 |
| 433 | Adam Pavlasek | CZE | 10/8/1994 |
| 434 | Mate Delic | CRO | 9/29/1993 |
| 445 | Mathias Bourgue | FRA | 1/18/1994 |
| 449 | Edoardo Eremin | ITA | 10/5/1993 |
| 450 | David Perez Sanz | ESP | 5/15/1994 |
| 474 | Mitchell Krueger | USA | 1/12/1994 |
| 478 | Enzo Couacaud | FRA | 3/1/1995 |
(data courtesy of Tennis Abstract)
Whoever it is will be as close as we get to teen phenoms these days.
*not to be confused with Jimmy Connors’ T-2000.
The Mighty (Small) Steel
Nice article. I’d be surprised if Quinzi and Garin aren’t well into the top 200 by the end of their teens.
Thanks. I’d say that’s a good call.
Another 96er that is probably a relatively safe bet is Thanasi Kokkinakis, who seems to have no trouble competing at pro level. Just qualified for Napa CH
Yes, I’ve been very impressed with Kokkinakis, too. I was mostly looking at teens who were relatively close to the Top 200 already and/or had their 20th birthday coming up soon. Had I expanded that criteria envelope further out, Thanasi would’ve definitely made the list.
Thank you for the article. What’s your logic for saying Coppejans is nearly twice as likely to make it as Peliwo, given that they are roughly at the same place and turn 20 fairly close together? Coppejans seems more consistent, but Peliwo has had more success in higher level tournaments, where there are more points to win.
Here’s where I fess up: they’re honestly just ballpark-ish numbers my mind threw out for no other purpose than to start a discussion (and you fell for it!). ;)
You do make a good point that Filip rises to the big occasions, and yes it was Coppejans’s consistency that led me to a higher number for him. But I must confess: there’s nothing scientific about those percentages at all.
I do believe that Kimmer has a slightly better shot at it (don’t discount those 10 extra days, haha), but is it twice the chance? Probably not.
Thanks for reading and commenting, Chahar, and for pinning me down to somewhat more realistic numbers. Math was never my strong suit. :)